In recent days, the graph of the CRB index shows little dynamics. The Friday session entered into consolidation for several days – the index value dropped by 0.14% up to 225.57 point The downside was again oil, as well as copper, wheat and cocoa. In turn, precious metals and some agricultural goods were positively surprised, including corn and coffee.
According to Goldman Sachs, in first half of this year, WTI oil will have to stay in the area for a long time 40 USD per barrel, so that American mining companies start to restrict production and thus to second Half of this year, the oil price has started to make up for losses. Investors seem to believe that because this morning the price of oil continues to descend.
Goldman Sachs cuts oil price forecasts
The continuation of the oil price should not be surprising. Last week, I pointed out that the inhibition of reductions and the delicate rise in oil prices was not due to changes in fundamental conditions on the market of this raw material, but rather to reaching the price of oil to another psychological barrier, this time around 50 USD for a barrel.
Also, last week's figures showing a drop in oil stocks in the U.S. did not manage to slow down oil prices for longer. In fact, it is known that shale oil production in the United States is still large, and it will take time for extractors to adapt to the changed market conditions.
It was this latter factor that Goldman Sachs drew attention to, today presenting its oil price forecasts. The Bank cut the forecast significantly — 3-Brent's monthly oil price forecast fell from 80 USD to 42 USD per barrel and WTI oil: from 70 USD to 41 USD for a barrel. Average forecast of oil barrel prices per barrel 2015 is 50.4 USD (from 83.75 USD) for Brent oil and 47.15 USD (from 73.75 USD) for WTI oil.
According to Goldman Sachs, in first half of this year, WTI oil will have to stay in the area for a long time 40 USD per barrel, so that American mining companies start to restrict production and thus to second Half of this year, the oil price has started to make up for losses. Investors seem to believe that because this morning the price of oil continues to descend.
Pending the USDA report
Meanwhile, the wheat market this morning shows a calming mood. After the fall of the past week, this grain's numbers stopped in the area of technical support in the area 560-561 USD for 100 They bushed and this morning they gently bounce up.
The recent price reduction in wheat prices is mainly due to a decline in demand for American cereals. After strong price increases last quarter, wheat from the US became uncompetitive compared to cereals from Europe and Asia. In addition, concerns about a significant decline in wheat supply from Russia, which also increased prices at the end of last year, were not met.
Today's calming of the mood may be a silence from the storm. Today the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will publish several important reports, including quarterly estimates of cereal stocks in the US and a monthly report on cereal production and stocks in the US and worldwide. What is important – for the time being first will present this year's forecast for wheat sowing area in the US in 2015 They may affect the expectations of wheat production next year.
Of course, the USDA report should be equally closely followed by investors in the corn and soy markets.